Adrian E. Raftery is Professor of Statistics and Sociology at the University of Washington in Seattle. He was born in Dublin, Ireland, and obtained a B.A. in Mathematics (1976) and an M.Sc. in Statistics and Operations Research (1977) at Trinity College Dublin. He obtained a doctorate in mathematical statistics in 1980 from the Université Pierre et Marie Curie in Paris, France under the supervision of Paul Deheuvels. He was a lecturer in statistics at Trinity College Dublin from 1980 to 1986, and then an associate (1986-1990) and full (1990-present) professor of statistics and sociology at the University of Washington. He was the founding Director of the Center for Statistics and Social Sciences (1999-2009).
Raftery has published over 170 refereed articles in statistical, sociological and other journals. His research focuses on Bayesian model selection and Bayesian model averaging, model-based clustering, inference for deterministic simulation models, and the development of new statistical methods for sociology,demography, and the environmental and health sciences.
He is a member of the United States National Academy of Sciences, a Fellow of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, an Honorary Member of the Royal Irish Academy, a member of the Washington State Academy of Sciences, a Fellow of the American Statistical Association, a Fellow of the Institute of Mathematical Statistics, and an elected Member of the Sociological Research Association. He has won the Population Association of America's Clifford C. Clogg Award, the American Sociological Association's Paul F. Lazarsfeld Award for Distinguished Contribution to Knowledge, the Jerome Sacks Award for Outstanding Cross-Disciplinary Research from the National Institute of Statistical Sciences, and the Parzen Prize for Statistical Innovation. He is also a former Coordinating and Applications Editor of the Journal of the American Statistical Association and a former Editor of Sociological Methodology. He was identified as the world's most cited researcher in mathematics for the decade 1995-2005 by Thomson-ISI.
Twenty-six students have obtained Ph.D.'s working under Raftery's supervision, of whom 18 hold university faculty positions.
- Adrian was elected to the Royal Irish Academy.
- Adrian was awarded the Parzen Prize for Statistical Innovation. Here is a news release.
- Bailey Fosdick was a Poster Session Award Winner at the Population Association of America 2013 Annual Meeting.
- An interview with Adrian was published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
Recent Publications (since 2012)
(Full citations here.)
- Bayesian probabilistic population projections for all countries.
- Bayesian Probabilistic Projections of Life Expectancy for All Countries.
- Bayesian Population Projections for the United Nations.
- Regional Probabilistic Fertility Forecasting by Modeling Between-Country Correlations.
- Estimating Demographic Parameters with Uncertainty from Fragmentary Data.
- Estimating the Total Fertility Rate from Multiple Imperfect Data Sources and Assessing its Uncertainty.
- Bayesian Reconstruction of Past Populations and Vital Rates by Age for Developing and Developed Countries.
- Modeling HIV/AIDS epidemics: revised approach in the UNAIDS Estimation and Projection Package 2011.
Bayesian model averaging
- Dynamic Logistic Regression and Dynamic Model Averaging for Binary Classification.
- Probabilistic Wind Vector Forecasting using Ensembles and Bayesian Model Averaging.
Gene expression data
- Integrating External Biological Knowledge in the Construction of Regulatory Networks from Time-series Expression Data.
- Predicting relapse prior to transplantation in chronic myeloid leukemia by integrating expert knowledge and expression data.
Other statistical methodology
- Fast Inference for the Latent Space Network Model Using a Case-Control Approximate Likelihood.
- Estimating the Correlation in Bivariate Normal Data with Known Variances and Small Sample Sizes.
- mclust Version 4 for R: Normal Mixture Modeling for Model-Based Clustering, Classification, and Density Estimation.
These papers are being made available here to facilitate the timely dissemination of scholarly work; copyright and all related rights are retained by the copyright holders.
Updated August 2, 2013; last major update May 2, 2013
Copyright© 2005-2013 by Adrian E. Raftery; all rights reserved.